<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
		>
<channel>
	<title>Comments for oscarbonilla.com</title>
	<atom:link href="http://oscarbonilla.com/comments/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://oscarbonilla.com</link>
	<description></description>
	<lastBuildDate>Fri, 26 Feb 2010 16:30:15 -0700</lastBuildDate>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2</generator>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
		<item>
		<title>Comment on About by Jack Davis</title>
		<link>http://oscarbonilla.com/about/comment-page-1/#comment-17500</link>
		<dc:creator>Jack Davis</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Feb 2010 16:30:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">#comment-17500</guid>
		<description>Oscar, I really appreciate your explanation of Bayes Theorem.  I think that we may be a lot alike except you are younger and a lot smarter.  I have always had the desire to know.  Lacking intuition I have to resort to Math.  Often I find that what I want to know is not knowable.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oscar, I really appreciate your explanation of Bayes Theorem.  I think that we may be a lot alike except you are younger and a lot smarter.  I have always had the desire to know.  Lacking intuition I have to resort to Math.  Often I find that what I want to know is not knowable.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>Comment on Unleash the power of the atom&#8230; to boil water? by Scott Graves</title>
		<link>http://oscarbonilla.com/2010/02/unleash-the-power-of-the-atom-to-boil-water/comment-page-1/#comment-16916</link>
		<dc:creator>Scott Graves</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Feb 2010 13:09:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://oscarbonilla.com/?p=446#comment-16916</guid>
		<description>Lack of knowledge of physics rather?

Generating electricity requires generating a potential difference, for which there are not that many methods, barring major advances in physics. Methods such as electromagnetic (the method used for steam power), photovoltaic (solar cells), chemical (batteries, bioelectric), piezoelectric, thermo/pyroelectric, electrostatic. The problem with the latter, more advanced technologies, is that they do not scale easily to the Megawatt scale, required by current centralized generation technologies. 

Unless we develop a portable nuclear fusion reactor, the energy available by distributed generation (mostly solar, wind, biomass, maybe using the exotic physics) is low, and would require major changes in current lifestyle to be sustainable.

The principle of conservation of energy still applies - you can not get energy out of nothing. With steam turbine (and solar cell etc.) efficiencies in the &gt;=20% range, there is not much to gain by more efficient generation methods - certainly not an order of magnitude.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Lack of knowledge of physics rather?</p>
<p>Generating electricity requires generating a potential difference, for which there are not that many methods, barring major advances in physics. Methods such as electromagnetic (the method used for steam power), photovoltaic (solar cells), chemical (batteries, bioelectric), piezoelectric, thermo/pyroelectric, electrostatic. The problem with the latter, more advanced technologies, is that they do not scale easily to the Megawatt scale, required by current centralized generation technologies. </p>
<p>Unless we develop a portable nuclear fusion reactor, the energy available by distributed generation (mostly solar, wind, biomass, maybe using the exotic physics) is low, and would require major changes in current lifestyle to be sustainable.</p>
<p>The principle of conservation of energy still applies &#8211; you can not get energy out of nothing. With steam turbine (and solar cell etc.) efficiencies in the &gt;=20% range, there is not much to gain by more efficient generation methods &#8211; certainly not an order of magnitude.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>Comment on Visualizing Bayes&#8217; theorem by viky</title>
		<link>http://oscarbonilla.com/2009/05/visualizing-bayes-theorem/comment-page-1/#comment-15712</link>
		<dc:creator>viky</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Feb 2010 05:57:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oscarbonilla.com/?p=119#comment-15712</guid>
		<description>this proof  was awesome.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>this proof  was awesome.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>Comment on Enjoying Life (a little more) by Mary Jo Martin</title>
		<link>http://oscarbonilla.com/2010/01/enjoying-life-a-little-more/comment-page-1/#comment-14991</link>
		<dc:creator>Mary Jo Martin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Feb 2010 14:52:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://oscarbonilla.com/?p=339#comment-14991</guid>
		<description>I love it!  And, as a marketer, it reinforces my belief that to &quot;sell&quot; something well (a product/service, or even yourself) you need a good story!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I love it!  And, as a marketer, it reinforces my belief that to &#8220;sell&#8221; something well (a product/service, or even yourself) you need a good story!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>Comment on Is that possible? by ob</title>
		<link>http://oscarbonilla.com/2008/12/is-that-possible/comment-page-1/#comment-14797</link>
		<dc:creator>ob</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 19:23:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oscarbonilla.com/?p=95#comment-14797</guid>
		<description>Agreed on the different kinds of logic... they are useful for different purposes, but in the context of our immediate reality, the classical two-value logic is what makes the most sense. I.e. non-euclidean geometries might be useful, but we are living in a mostly euclidean world, so for everyday interactions euclidean logic works best. In the same way, Newtonian physics are much more useful for everyday interactions than quantum mechanics. I&#039;m just trying to be pragmatic.

On to the second point. Thank you for the pointers to the stories! I thoroughly enjoyed them. I see no contradictions in the stories as long as you are willing to give up determinism and free will. I was trying to put together a more detail description, but then today I bumped into this article: http://discovermagazine.com/2010/mar/02-the-real-rules-for-time-travelers/ which eloquently expresses my point of view.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Agreed on the different kinds of logic&#8230; they are useful for different purposes, but in the context of our immediate reality, the classical two-value logic is what makes the most sense. I.e. non-euclidean geometries might be useful, but we are living in a mostly euclidean world, so for everyday interactions euclidean logic works best. In the same way, Newtonian physics are much more useful for everyday interactions than quantum mechanics. I&#8217;m just trying to be pragmatic.</p>
<p>On to the second point. Thank you for the pointers to the stories! I thoroughly enjoyed them. I see no contradictions in the stories as long as you are willing to give up determinism and free will. I was trying to put together a more detail description, but then today I bumped into this article: <a href="http://discovermagazine.com/2010/mar/02-the-real-rules-for-time-travelers/" rel="nofollow">http://discovermagazine.com/2010/mar/02-the-real-rules-for-time-travelers/</a> which eloquently expresses my point of view.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>Comment on Is that possible? by Keith Braithwaite</title>
		<link>http://oscarbonilla.com/2008/12/is-that-possible/comment-page-1/#comment-13516</link>
		<dc:creator>Keith Braithwaite</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jan 2010 12:17:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oscarbonilla.com/?p=95#comment-13516</guid>
		<description>So, two thoughts: Firstly, there are perfectly reasonable, and very useful, families of logic that deny non-contradiction or the excluded middle. Some commentators try to claim that these are (therefore) &quot;not logic&quot; I don&#039;t think this is true any more than that those geometries which abandon the Parallel Postulate are &quot;not geometry&quot;

Secondly, I would be interested to know what contradictions are present in Robert Henlein&#039;s two time travel stories &quot;By his bootstraps&quot; and &quot;All you zombies&quot; neither of which includes a parallel universe.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So, two thoughts: Firstly, there are perfectly reasonable, and very useful, families of logic that deny non-contradiction or the excluded middle. Some commentators try to claim that these are (therefore) &#8220;not logic&#8221; I don&#8217;t think this is true any more than that those geometries which abandon the Parallel Postulate are &#8220;not geometry&#8221;</p>
<p>Secondly, I would be interested to know what contradictions are present in Robert Henlein&#8217;s two time travel stories &#8220;By his bootstraps&#8221; and &#8220;All you zombies&#8221; neither of which includes a parallel universe.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>Comment on Enjoying Life (a little more) by tim</title>
		<link>http://oscarbonilla.com/2010/01/enjoying-life-a-little-more/comment-page-1/#comment-13463</link>
		<dc:creator>tim</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 16 Jan 2010 20:43:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://oscarbonilla.com/?p=339#comment-13463</guid>
		<description>Cool to actually hear it backwards. :)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Cool to actually hear it backwards. :)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>Comment on Visualizing Bayes&#8217; theorem by Franco</title>
		<link>http://oscarbonilla.com/2009/05/visualizing-bayes-theorem/comment-page-1/#comment-12890</link>
		<dc:creator>Franco</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Dec 2009 01:02:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oscarbonilla.com/?p=119#comment-12890</guid>
		<description>Good visual explanation. I used it to work out a probability but don&#039;t know if the professor is going to reject it.
Thanks.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Good visual explanation. I used it to work out a probability but don&#8217;t know if the professor is going to reject it.<br />
Thanks.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>Comment on Visualizing Bayes&#8217; theorem by Mark</title>
		<link>http://oscarbonilla.com/2009/05/visualizing-bayes-theorem/comment-page-1/#comment-12764</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Dec 2009 01:58:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oscarbonilla.com/?p=119#comment-12764</guid>
		<description>Just wanted to convey my thanks.
I am teaching this subject to undergrads at a Chinese university and found your explanations and visuals a huge help.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just wanted to convey my thanks.<br />
I am teaching this subject to undergrads at a Chinese university and found your explanations and visuals a huge help.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>Comment on Visualizing Bayes&#8217; theorem by Riley</title>
		<link>http://oscarbonilla.com/2009/05/visualizing-bayes-theorem/comment-page-1/#comment-12565</link>
		<dc:creator>Riley</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Nov 2009 22:09:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oscarbonilla.com/?p=119#comment-12565</guid>
		<description>Can someone help me with this question?
One fifth of customers entering a certain Future 
Shop store are under 20 years old.  5% of these under 20 year olds make a purchase over $500, 
and 10% of the customers 20 years or older make a purchase over $500.  What is the probability 
that is a major purchase is made, it was by a person 20 years or older?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Can someone help me with this question?<br />
One fifth of customers entering a certain Future<br />
Shop store are under 20 years old.  5% of these under 20 year olds make a purchase over $500,<br />
and 10% of the customers 20 years or older make a purchase over $500.  What is the probability<br />
that is a major purchase is made, it was by a person 20 years or older?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>Comment on The Monty Hall problem by KK</title>
		<link>http://oscarbonilla.com/2009/05/the-monty-hall-problem/comment-page-1/#comment-12149</link>
		<dc:creator>KK</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Oct 2009 22:50:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://oscarbonilla.com/?p=179#comment-12149</guid>
		<description>The original statement is that there are three unknown doors. When you &quot;open&quot; one door the original statement is false. There are two unknowns. In this case door a and c. 
question should be 
which statement is true
a=1
or
b=1
or 
c=1
a+b+c=1
if 
b = 0 
then 
a or b =1
Your chances are 50%

Therefore door and and c are equal.

With the common system if you choose a and they open door a and it is found to be correct you should still change because you odds are higher with two incorrect choices than the correct.
It goes back to the opening statement. If we have three unknowns. The moment you only have two unknowns this becomes false and you have an entirely new equation.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The original statement is that there are three unknown doors. When you &#8220;open&#8221; one door the original statement is false. There are two unknowns. In this case door a and c.<br />
question should be<br />
which statement is true<br />
a=1<br />
or<br />
b=1<br />
or<br />
c=1<br />
a+b+c=1<br />
if<br />
b = 0<br />
then<br />
a or b =1<br />
Your chances are 50%</p>
<p>Therefore door and and c are equal.</p>
<p>With the common system if you choose a and they open door a and it is found to be correct you should still change because you odds are higher with two incorrect choices than the correct.<br />
It goes back to the opening statement. If we have three unknowns. The moment you only have two unknowns this becomes false and you have an entirely new equation.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>Comment on Visualizing Bayes&#8217; theorem by Bayes and Probability &#171; A Diary</title>
		<link>http://oscarbonilla.com/2009/05/visualizing-bayes-theorem/comment-page-1/#comment-11744</link>
		<dc:creator>Bayes and Probability &#171; A Diary</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2009 13:12:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oscarbonilla.com/?p=119#comment-11744</guid>
		<description>[...] want to explain the calculation by Venn diagrams but someone else beats me to it http://oscarbonilla.com/2009/05/visualizing-bayes-theorem/ There&#8217;re links to others&#8217; presentations so pick your favorite. What I think in terms [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] want to explain the calculation by Venn diagrams but someone else beats me to it <a href="http://oscarbonilla.com/2009/05/visualizing-bayes-theorem/ There&#8217;re" rel="nofollow">http://oscarbonilla.com/2009/05/visualizing-bayes-theorem/ There&#8217;re</a> links to others&#8217; presentations so pick your favorite. What I think in terms [...]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>Comment on Visualizing Bayes&#8217; theorem by Truecrimson</title>
		<link>http://oscarbonilla.com/2009/05/visualizing-bayes-theorem/comment-page-1/#comment-11743</link>
		<dc:creator>Truecrimson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Oct 2009 11:26:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oscarbonilla.com/?p=119#comment-11743</guid>
		<description>You beat me to it! I got the idea of thinking about Bayes&#039; theorem by Venn diagrams by reading Reza&#039;s An Introduction to Information Theory.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You beat me to it! I got the idea of thinking about Bayes&#8217; theorem by Venn diagrams by reading Reza&#8217;s An Introduction to Information Theory.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>Comment on Is that possible? by Philip Brocoum</title>
		<link>http://oscarbonilla.com/2008/12/is-that-possible/comment-page-1/#comment-11698</link>
		<dc:creator>Philip Brocoum</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Oct 2009 13:30:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.oscarbonilla.com/?p=95#comment-11698</guid>
		<description>Excellent post. It&#039;s important for people to understand that there are different levels of certainty. Even if one cannot be 100% certain, you can get pretty close and that&#039;s no reason not to believe in something.

I was recently thinking the other day that I hate the word &quot;possible&quot;. People love to use that to win any argument. For example, religious people often say, &quot;But don&#039;t you admit that it&#039;s at least POSSIBLE that God exists?&quot; And then I have to respond, &quot;Yes, it&#039;s possible, anything is possible.&quot; What choice do I have? And then the religious person takes my answer as a &quot;win&quot;. It&#039;s so annoying!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Excellent post. It&#8217;s important for people to understand that there are different levels of certainty. Even if one cannot be 100% certain, you can get pretty close and that&#8217;s no reason not to believe in something.</p>
<p>I was recently thinking the other day that I hate the word &#8220;possible&#8221;. People love to use that to win any argument. For example, religious people often say, &#8220;But don&#8217;t you admit that it&#8217;s at least POSSIBLE that God exists?&#8221; And then I have to respond, &#8220;Yes, it&#8217;s possible, anything is possible.&#8221; What choice do I have? And then the religious person takes my answer as a &#8220;win&#8221;. It&#8217;s so annoying!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>Comment on The Two Envelopes Problem by Philip Brocoum</title>
		<link>http://oscarbonilla.com/2009/10/the-two-envelopes-problem/comment-page-1/#comment-11697</link>
		<dc:creator>Philip Brocoum</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Oct 2009 13:18:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://oscarbonilla.com/?p=280#comment-11697</guid>
		<description>There actually isn&#039;t any flaw in how I worded the problem. Watch: I fill one envelope with $10, another with $20, and then give you the $20 envelope. I then tell you that my envelope contains either double or half the amount of money that&#039;s in yours. There, what&#039;s the problem? Setting up the problem is easy.

The reason this problem is controversial is because it&#039;s TRICKY, and people hate it when they are tricked. Here is another similarly tricky problem: A couple has two children, one of whom is a boy. What is the probability that the other child is also a boy? The answer is a counterintuitive 1/3 because the problem does not state WHICH child is a boy. If the problem had instead stated, &quot;the first child is a boy,&quot; then the answer would be the expected 1/2.

Of course, when you explain that to people, they get mad and say, &quot;Well, you tricked me! It&#039;s an unfair question. You didn&#039;t say which child was the boy, so I assumed it was the first one.&quot; Exactly, you cannot make unfounded assumptions. That&#039;s what the riddle is trying to teach you.

Likewise, the two envelopes problem is a lesson on symmetry. It&#039;s TRICKY because people don&#039;t realize that BOTH envelopes contain either double or half what&#039;s in the other. It&#039;s a symmetrical statement. Even if you reason yourself into switching envelopes, once you&#039;ve switched it then turns out that my envelope STILL contains either double or half what&#039;s in your envelope, so by your reasoning you should switch again. Which is, of course, ridiculous.

People like to complain, &quot;It&#039;s an unfair question. I thought you meant that my envelope was filled first with a constant value of $100, and then yours contains either $200 or $50.&quot; Of course, that&#039;s not what the problem says, and people are making unfounded assumptions.

Also, the incorrect solution that you are talking about, solution 1 on my site, was included on purpose specifically because it&#039;s wrong. I was turning the riddle into one of those, &quot;Here&#039;s a proof that 1 + 1 = 3, where is the error?&quot; type of problems.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There actually isn&#8217;t any flaw in how I worded the problem. Watch: I fill one envelope with $10, another with $20, and then give you the $20 envelope. I then tell you that my envelope contains either double or half the amount of money that&#8217;s in yours. There, what&#8217;s the problem? Setting up the problem is easy.</p>
<p>The reason this problem is controversial is because it&#8217;s TRICKY, and people hate it when they are tricked. Here is another similarly tricky problem: A couple has two children, one of whom is a boy. What is the probability that the other child is also a boy? The answer is a counterintuitive 1/3 because the problem does not state WHICH child is a boy. If the problem had instead stated, &#8220;the first child is a boy,&#8221; then the answer would be the expected 1/2.</p>
<p>Of course, when you explain that to people, they get mad and say, &#8220;Well, you tricked me! It&#8217;s an unfair question. You didn&#8217;t say which child was the boy, so I assumed it was the first one.&#8221; Exactly, you cannot make unfounded assumptions. That&#8217;s what the riddle is trying to teach you.</p>
<p>Likewise, the two envelopes problem is a lesson on symmetry. It&#8217;s TRICKY because people don&#8217;t realize that BOTH envelopes contain either double or half what&#8217;s in the other. It&#8217;s a symmetrical statement. Even if you reason yourself into switching envelopes, once you&#8217;ve switched it then turns out that my envelope STILL contains either double or half what&#8217;s in your envelope, so by your reasoning you should switch again. Which is, of course, ridiculous.</p>
<p>People like to complain, &#8220;It&#8217;s an unfair question. I thought you meant that my envelope was filled first with a constant value of $100, and then yours contains either $200 or $50.&#8221; Of course, that&#8217;s not what the problem says, and people are making unfounded assumptions.</p>
<p>Also, the incorrect solution that you are talking about, solution 1 on my site, was included on purpose specifically because it&#8217;s wrong. I was turning the riddle into one of those, &#8220;Here&#8217;s a proof that 1 + 1 = 3, where is the error?&#8221; type of problems.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
</channel>
</rss>
